When to hit driver

The comparison almost everyone gets wrong

Every golfer has been told to leave the driver in the bag on a tight hole. The advice usually compares the wrong two things: a driver that might miss the fairway against a lay-up that is quietly assumed to find it.

It does not. A lay-up misses the fairway too. So the honest comparison is between two spreads of outcomes, each with a fairway half and a rough half, and the question is whether the driver's spread beats the lay-up's.

A driver miss is better than a lay-up miss

This is the part that decides it. On a 400 yard hole, a driver leaves 170 yards and a lay-up leaves 200. Both can be in the rough. But the driver's rough is 30 yards closer to the green.

	In the fairway	In the rough
Driver, 170 left	3.46	3.93
Lay-up, 200 left	3.68	4.20

The driver's bad outcome costs 3.93. The lay-up's bad outcome costs 4.20. The driver is 0.27 strokes better off even when it misses, because rough at 170 is an easier shot than rough at 200. The lay-up does not remove the miss. It moves the miss further from the hole.

How often the driver actually has to find the fairway

Set both shots up as distributions and solve for the driver's fairway rate that makes the two equal. The answer is far lower than intuition suggests.

If your lay-up finds the fairway	Your driver only needs
55%	4%
60%	10%
65%	15%
70%	21%
75%	26%
80%	32%

Read the middle row. If your lay-up club finds the fairway two times in three, your driver breaks even at 15%. Almost nobody is below that. Even against a lay-up that finds 80% of fairways, the driver only needs 32%.

What the numbers underneath are

Missing the fairway at 180 yards costs 0.50 strokes. Moving 20 yards closer saves 0.16. Taken alone those two figures make accuracy look 3.1 times more valuable than distance, which is exactly the reasoning that puts the driver away. It is wrong because it credits the lay-up with a fairway it has not earned.

Yards to the pin	From the fairway	From the rough	What the miss costs
100	3.08	3.40	0.32
140	3.28	3.70	0.42
180	3.52	4.02	0.50
220	3.82	4.40	0.58

From	Expected	20 yards closer	Expected	Saved
120	3.18	100	3.08	0.10
160	3.40	140	3.28	0.12
180	3.52	160	3.40	0.12
200	3.68	180	3.52	0.16
220	3.82	200	3.68	0.14

So when should you leave it in the bag

When the miss is punished by something worse than rough. Recovery from trees or a hazard at 200 yards costs 1.17 strokes against the fairway, several times what rough costs. Water and out of bounds are worse again, because they add a penalty stroke before you play the next one.

That is the real rule, and it is about the shape of the trouble rather than the width of the fairway. Hit driver unless a penalty sits inside your dispersion pattern. If it does, take the club that puts it outside.

Yards runs this per hole using your handicap and your own carry distances, so the fairway rates in the table above are yours rather than an average.

More strategy guides

When to Play It Safe Off the TeeLaying up feels free and is not. What 20 yards is worth in strokes, when playing safe is right, and how to tell whether the trouble you are avoiding is inside your pattern.Best Approach Shot Strategy: Aim at the MiddleWhy aiming at the centre of the green beats aiming at the flag for almost every amateur, shown with real dispersion widths and the cost of a short-sided miss.Pre-Round Golf Strategy: A Plan for Every HoleWhat a pre-round plan contains, how to prepare for a tournament or a course you have never played, and why a plan beats practice for golfers short on time.How to Lower Your Handicap Without Practising MoreThe strokes most golfers lose are decisions, not swings. Three habits that cost more than your technique, and how to improve when you cannot get to the range.

Every figure on this page is read at build time from the same expected-strokes and dispersion tables the Yards engine runs on, for a mid handicap. Your own numbers will differ, which is the point.