When to lay up, and when it is costing you

Playing safe has a price, and most golfers never see it

Laying up feels free. It is not. Every yard you leave short is a yard you have to hit later, from further away, with a longer club and a wider pattern.

From	Expected	20 yards closer	Expected	Saved
120	3.18	100	3.08	0.10
160	3.40	140	3.28	0.12
180	3.52	160	3.40	0.12
200	3.68	180	3.52	0.16
220	3.82	200	3.68	0.14

That is the fee if the lay-up works. It is small per 20 yards, which is why laying up is right more often than golfers admit.

The fee is bigger than that table shows

The comparison above assumes the lay-up finds the fairway. It often does not, and that is the cost nobody counts. A lay-up that misses leaves you in the rough further from the green than a driver that misses.

	In the fairway	In the rough
Driver, 170 left	3.46	3.93
Lay-up, 200 left	3.68	4.20

Both rows are a miss. The lay-up's miss costs 4.20 and the driver's costs 3.93. Laying up does not remove the bad outcome, it relocates it further away. Work that through and the driver breaks even at a fairway rate almost nobody is below — the numbers are on the when to hit driver page.

When laying up is clearly right

When the aggressive line brings a penalty into play. Recovery at 200 yards costs 1.17 strokes against the fairway. Water costs a stroke plus the distance. Against a fee of about 0.16 per 20 yards, you can give up a lot of distance before you have paid what one wet ball costs.

When the lay-up genuinely changes the shot. Laying up to a number you like, from a flat lie, with a full swing, is worth real strokes. Laying up to an awkward 40 yards is not.

When laying up is quietly costing you

When you lay up short of a bunker you would carry nine times out of ten. When you lay up because the hole looks tight rather than because it is. When you lay up on a par 5 you could reach, then hit a wedge you were always going to hit anyway.

The tell is simple: if the trouble you are avoiding sits outside the width of your own pattern, you are paying a fee to avoid a risk you do not have.

How wide is your pattern, really

Ninety per cent of your shots land inside this radius of your aim point. Most golfers guess low, which is why they aim at pins they cannot hold and lay up short of hazards they would never reach.

Handicap	100 yd	150 yd	220 yd
5	13 yd	20 yd	30 yd
15	28 yd	42 yd	61 yd

More strategy guides

When to Hit Driver (and When Not To)Driver or 3 wood? The trade between distance and fairways, priced in strokes from the same expected-strokes model the PGA Tour uses. The answer surprises most golfers.Best Approach Shot Strategy: Aim at the MiddleWhy aiming at the centre of the green beats aiming at the flag for almost every amateur, shown with real dispersion widths and the cost of a short-sided miss.Pre-Round Golf Strategy: A Plan for Every HoleWhat a pre-round plan contains, how to prepare for a tournament or a course you have never played, and why a plan beats practice for golfers short on time.How to Lower Your Handicap Without Practising MoreThe strokes most golfers lose are decisions, not swings. Three habits that cost more than your technique, and how to improve when you cannot get to the range.

Every figure on this page is read at build time from the same expected-strokes and dispersion tables the Yards engine runs on, for a mid handicap. Your own numbers will differ, which is the point.